Osservatorio | October 2024

At a glance:

• At the autumn economic test the US passes with flying colours, C hina is delayed in launching its recovery plan and the Eurozone is a lmost in recession, pulled down by Germany and France.
• Germany’s car production is still 30 per cent below its 2016 pe ak, just after “dieselgate” forced it to abandon the motorisation i t was banking on, and has become fourth globally, overtaken by China, Japan and India.
• Its transition to the electric car, which entails the loss of 6 0 per cent of the value added, compared to the endothermic engine, appears to be stalled: monthly volumes are stuck above 100,000 units, about a third of the total, by the end of 2022.
• Italy faces additional challenges, in addition to the weakness of Franco-Germanic demand: reduction of the public deficit; falling investment in housing; lack of workers.
• In the US, the employment-consumption pair will not lose steam.
• Wage inflation will remain higher due to the strength of the lab our market.
• The ECB and the Fed will continue to cut rates, pandering to fa lling inflation. The former will do more than the latter and the euro will suffer.
• In an environment of positive nominal and real rates, equity in vestment becomes selective.
• Views from the managers: a summary of the insights and observat ions that emerged in meetings with Ceresio Investors’ managers follo wing a recent trip to the United States.